BITCOIN COULD SURPRISE US ALL IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2023!

Hello, fellow crypto devotees!

Welcome to the second half of 2023! That sounds weird, doesn't it? I honestly, don't know where the first half of the year has gone 🙈!

Anyway, I don't think it would be an understatement to say that the first half of 2023 has been pretty good for crypto 💪.

Were you expecting us to close out the first half of 2023 with Bitcoin back above $30,000? I'm not sure that many would have said they were confident back in January when the price was below $16,000 (me included) 😵.

Yet, here we are!

So, in this week's newsletter, I want to take you through:

• Recognise - We Review Where Bitcoin Is Mid-Way Through 2023 & Where It Could Go Next 🤔
• Respond - What is a Decentralized Exchange? + What DEX I Would Start With
• Research - Is Solana an Ethereum Killer? Can It Come Back in 2024-25 Bull Run?

RECOGNISE - WE REVIEW WHERE BITCOIN IS MID-WAY THROUGH 2023 & WHERE IT COULD GO NEXT 🤔

A LOT has changed since the start of 2023.

I'm just going to leave this first initial chart here so that you can cast your minds back to what the environment was like as we edged into a new year - I'll give you a hint - it was frosty 🥶 !

I hadn't even started producing this newsletter back then - that's how bad things were!

And yet, here we are with Bitcoin pushing year highs above $30,000.

But before we start popping bottles of champagne 🍾 , as crypto investors, we need to take into account how the landscape has changed in the last 6 months and where things could go next - which is what I want to focus on in this first section 🔍.

And at the very end of this section, I'll give you my price prediction for Bitcoin at the end of 2023.

Back in January 2023, there was still a lot of uncertainty regarding quantitative tightening, the fallout from FTX was still ongoing, and stock market indexes were continuing to climb lower 📉.

However, in June 2023, this is how I think the landscape has changed:

• We are getting more clarity that quantitative tightening from the Federal Reserve is coming to an end 🥳
• There is a higher likelihood that interest rates are going to at least pause, and potentially even fall
• The S&P 500 and NASDAQ stock indexes are 9% and 11% away from all-time high levels 📈
• And most recently we have seen large financial institutions reenter the crypto fold (BlackRock, Deutsche Bank, Valkyrie) 💼

In addition to fundamental changes, Bitcoin's technicals have changed dramatically:

• The overall macro downtrend was broken between January and March
• A convincing weekly higher-high, higher-low structure is now in place
• The price of Bitcoin has broken back above the 200-week MA
• And as Bitcoin has continued to climb through Q1, and Q2, a magnitude of indicators have flashed green for the first time in 2 years 💚

So, the landscape has definitely changed - hopefully, you've been able to stay on top of it with the help of this newsletter - but the point is, it looks like the crypto markets are in a much more positive position than at the start of the year.

Now - the golden question - where could Bitcoin end up by the end of 2023 🤨?

Well, I honestly think that Bitcoin will move from strength to strength throughout the remainder of the year.

In the back of my mind, I know that there could be some unexpected black swan event that quickly drags prices lower (there may not be), but other than that possibility what else does Bitcoin have to contend with?

Especially as Bicoin's halving event comes into full view 🔭.

So, with all of that taken into account, I believe during the remainder of 2023, we could see Bitcoin peak in the range between $36,000 and $44,000.

What do you think? Reply to this email or send me a message on socials - I would love to hear your thoughts!

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RESPOND - WHAT IS A DECENTRALISED EXCHANGE? + WHAT DEX I WOULD START WITH

There has been a lot of FUD surrounding centralised crypto exchanges recently:

• the SEC bringing charges to Coinbase and Binance
• Binance withdrawing from multiple European countries
• KuCoin introducing KYC criteria 🤦🏼‍♂️

This is why the interest in decentralised exchanges (DEX) is on the rise 📈. But, some may be unaware of their true potential and maybe a bit confused as to how these platforms actually work - so, this section is for you!

Decentralised exchanges (DEXs) allow any crypto investors - anywhere in the world - to trade and swap crypto without needing the services of an intermediary.

• There is no need to hand over control of crypto assets 🔒
• Fees are lower thanks to cutting out middlemen ✂️
• There is no requirement for KYC documentation which means that these applications are open to anyone 🌍
• And those supplying liquidity can get rewarded 💰

DEXs achieve this because they are built directly on top of blockchain technology and leverage two main things:

1. Smart contracts (programmable code on the blockchain)
2. User-supplied liquidity

Smart contracts allow for complete automation, meaning that cryptos can be swapped without the need for human interaction.

Meanwhile, liquidity for a DEX is supplied by individuals, like you and me - better known as 'liquidity providers' (LPs). This means that all of the 'high-charging' middlemen - such as market makers and large financial institutions 🏦 - can be removed from the exchange process.

Now, to get familiar with these platforms there is one application that I would head to first...

...and that is Uniswap 🦄

Uniswap was one of the original decentralised exchanges and continues to hold a dominant position in the DEX sector.

It is the perfect playground to learn all about the basics of decentralised finance (DeFi).

All liquidity on the exchange is supplied by users, who then receive a proportion of all trading fees 🤩.

Why is Uniswap such a great place to start? Well, it was the original, the OG in the space, and many other DeFi applications either integrate with Uniswap or copy some of its features.

So, if you can get familiar with using Uniswap 🦄 - or at least the fundamentals behind it - it is a great stepping stone to gaining a handle on the entire DeFi sector.

RESEARCH - IS SOLANA STILL AN ETHEREUM KILLER? CAN SOL OUTPERFORM ETH?

Solana was a monster layer-1 blockchain in the last bull run.

Its native coin - SOL - was initially launched in 2020 for a price of $0.22.

In a little over a year, the price of SOL had torn higher and eventually peaked at $250 in October 2021 - over a 14,000% increase 🤯!

But SOL has since retraced by more than 94%.

If the price were to return to all-time highs there is a 1400% return on the table - not bad.

But, what I want to know is, could there be even more upside during the next bull run, and, therefore, could Solana offer a better ROI than Ethereum?

Thanks to a new report released from Messari Crypto we have a few more data points to put these 2 layer-1 titans head-to-head 🥊:

Blockchain specs (ETH 0 - SOL 1):

• Solana - Solana can complete 65,000 transactions per second 65,000, at an average fee of $0.001, with an average speed of 0.4 sec 🏎️
• Ethereum - Ethereum can complete 15 transactions per second, at an average fee of $3.59, with an average speed of 5 mins 🚗

Monthly active users (ETH 0 - SOL 2):

• Solana - 9,500,000 million active users
• Ethereum - 4,700,000 million active users (not including L2s)

Decentralisation (ETH 0 - SOL 3):

• Solana - Nakamoto Coefficient of 31 (the highest of any Proof-of-Stake blockchain)
• Ethereum - Nakamoto Coefficient of 20 (slightly lower because larger staking pools control a large chunk of supply)

Any new usable technologies in 2023? (ETH 0 - SOL 4):

• Solana - Firedancer: a new validator client that helps improve the efficiency of the network even further (1 million tps). This could make Solana the best option for Big Data apps such as finance, social media, gaming, etc.
• Ethereum - Ethereum is, of course, now a Proof-of-Stake blockchain and is prepping for its own scalability solution (proto-dank sharding) - but it's not there yet!

Developer activity (ETH 1 - SOL 4):

• Solana - 242 weekly core developers
• Ethereum -360 weekly core developers

Total value locked (ETH 2 - SOL 4):

• Solana - $252 million
• Ethereum - $26.1 billion

Distance from all-time high (ETH 3 - SOL 5):

• Solana - 94% down from all-time high (fairing worse in the bear market but more upside potential?)
• Ethereum - 62% down from all-time high (fairing better in the bear market but less upside potential?)

Trust and reputation (ETH 4 - SOL 5):

• Solana - There's no other way to look at things, Solana has had a lot of problems to contend with over the last 2 years 😕 - the main one being problems with outages (not great for any blockchain)
• Ethereum - Ethereum certainly fairs a little better here. The team behind Ethereum managed to transition the blockchain from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake seamlessly 🥳 (which is arguably one of the greatest achievements in the space. There is no doubt that Ethereum is currently more trusted

So, based on all of those data points…drum roll 🥁 …

…Solana comes out just ahead with 5 goals to Ethereum's 4 ⚽️!

Now, the question we as crypto investors need to ask is, with Ethereum's market cap currently 40 times larger than Solana's, is ETH 40x more valuable than SOL?

Here's my one-liner thought based on everything I have seen.

If no other layer-1 blockchain competitors come out that are faster, cheaper, and more decentralised than Solana AND IF Solana can continue to remain operational (that's a big IF), I believe SOL could at least return to its all-time high value.

This, of course, is just an assumption. Unfortunately, no one really knows - but it’s an exciting question to ponder 🤔 !

And I for one can’t wait to see what the next crypto bull run brings for this Ethereum killer ⚔️.

And based on the first half of 2023, we may not have to wait much longer 🕰️ !

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And that wraps up this week's 80/20 newsletter.

As always, thank you so much for subscribing, and if you ever have any thoughts, or suggestions or would like a particular topic covered, ping me an email or a message on socials any time 🙌.

Have a great weekend and I'll see you for the next one!

James

Founder of Access All Crypto

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